Producing Zero Operational Risk

The likelihood of component failure reflects the operational risk present. By reducing the likelihood of component failure to zero, zero operational risk is achieved.

Operational Risk is a mathematical formula, with variables that can be manipulated and controlled to reach the desired outcome. Below are three equations related to operational risk that you can use to change your future.

The first equation is the standard operational risk equation, where financial consequence of an event is multiplied by the likelihood of the event. This is normally measured in money lost per year due to the event. Likelihood consists of two factors: opportunity, and chance. Therefore, the full risk equation consists of three factors, consequence ($ per year), opportunity, and chance. This is the second equation listed. It includes the Total Defect and Failure Cost consequences, multiplied by the frequency of the opportunity occurring, multiplied by the chance of failure at that opportunity.

Risk ($ / yr) = Consequence of event ($) x Likelihood of event (per year)

Risk = TDAF Consequence of event ($) x [Freq of Opportunity (per year) x Chance of Failure at Opportunity]

Chance of Failure = 1 – Chance of Success = 1 – Reliability

Risk = TDAF Consequence of event ($) x [Freq of Opportunity (per year) x {1 – Reliability at Opportunity}]

Risk is probabilistic. When an opportunity for failure event arises, it either causes a failure or not. The outcome is uncertain – and we cannot know what will happen until the situation occurs either way.

This is known as the Chance of Failure.

Chance of Failure = 1 – Chance of Success.

The Chance of Success is Reliability. Therefore,

Chance of Failure = 1 – Reliability

From here, we can see the formula for the full operational risk equation is –

Operational Risk = Consequence x [Opportunity x (1 – Reliability)]

Now it is clear that operational risk directly relates to reliability. So, there are three ways to zero operational risk.

  1.    Having zero consequence from failure,
  2.    Having zero opportunities for failure, or
  3.    Having perfect reliability so no chance of failure occurs.

When reliability is perfect, it has a probability value of 1. As such, the chance of failure becomes zero.

Chance of Failure = 1 – 1 = 0

Operational Risk = Consequence x [Opportunity x (0)]

Operational Risk = 0

We know that there are multiple opportunities for failure to occur. Below are 5 examples of opportunities for failure.

  1.    Lubricant contaminated with wear particles means every wear particle is an opportunity to fail. On top of the sump plug are tens of thousands of wear particles. Each one can cause a failure.
  2.    A distorted and deformed pump-set causes shafts in the motor and pump to bow, bend and be misaligned. The roller bearings in the motor and pump are sure to fail early in their working lives. So, to will the pump shaft seal.
  3.    Over-tensioning in fasteners induce high stresses even before the equipment is in service. When the fluctuating equipment service forces add to the over-tension stresses, fasteners snap unexpectedly.
  4.    Running parts require the correct fit and tolerance between them at their operating temperature. If parts become oversized they are forced together and get damaged. If the parts are undersized they rattle against each other and again get damaged.
  5.    Unbalanced rotors weigh more on one side of center-of-rotation. It causes off-center loads to be forced against the bearing and into the equipment structure. Parts get thumped around, they become overloaded and get overstressed and so are failed earlier.

Those five opportunities to fail machinery are just a few from the many opportunities that could cause a failure event. The Plant Wellness Way EAM reliability-creation philosophy is to prevent all opportunities that might go to failure from arising. In Plant Wellness Way EAM everything humanly possible is done throughout the life-cycle to create zero operational risk. Eliminating consequences of parts failure, removing opportunities for a part to fail, and maximizing component reliability. We act so if unfavorable events occur they do not fail the part.